Things just keep getting tougher in the NFL this year, which is becoming the season of the Haves (Cheaters, Colts, Steelers, Cowboys and the Surprising Packers) and the have nots-everyone else.
Here’s the thing. There isn’t one game this week we feel strong about. Our system, which is noticing trends the public does not (overrated or underrated teams especially) has not provided good matchups. The 49’ers did not look as good as we thought last week, so while we would normally say take them at home against the Seahawks, we think it is better to wait a week and see if they right themselves. Similarly, the Cardinals now have a QB controversy at the wrong time- with the visiting Steelers and their pressure defense. Stay away from that game.
The three games we like are visiting favorites. You will go broke quickly betting against home dogs on a regular basis. Thus, while we like the Eagles. The Pack, and the Jets, tread lightly here.
Here are our best guesses this week.
The Bears take their very tough Defense and start Brian Griese over Rex Grossman to Detroit. The Bears are banged up very bad, otherwise the play would be Bears -3. The over/under is 45 and that is intriguing. The Lions have an explosive offense. The Bears are banged up on defense. The play seems to be under, but with a Big Lion roaring on O, and a rejuvenated Bear offense psyched by behind Griese, over might just be the play here. The Lions are also one of our lesser trend teams in that they are better than people think. Lions +3, and Over 45.
The resurgent Philly Eagles take a quick bus ride to NJ to battle the NY Football Giants. The Giants are just hanging on with a gritty win over the Redskins last week, The line is Philly -3 and the over under is 47 ½. We like the Eagles who are the far superior team. The Giants are in reality ready to enter the Bill Cowher sweepstakes. Their Coach has lost this team, and nothing short of a super bowl victory will save his job. Take the Eagles -3 and the under.
The surprising Pack play division rival Vikings at Minneapolis. The Pack is -3 on the road, but the Vikes are starting their back-up QB. While the Vikes have rookie sensation Adrian Peterson, wouldn’t you go with Farve versus a backup. Take the Pack, but lightly as home dogs can bite.
The Dolphins (the Dolphins???) just about turned the corner last week. Is this the week they get off the schneid? Why not? There are lousy pickings this week. I really don’t feel strong about any picks, so take a couple of shots of Cuban coffee and call 52nd Street Irwin and say “give me the fins -4”. Stranger things have happened. The under is 41 and with the rain last night, it also might be a play here.
The Jets visit Buffalo as a 3 point favorite. The hapless Bills, bitten by the injury bug big time this year, start a rookie QB, and that always catches a bettor's eye. Give the 3 as the J E T S get a road win. The under is 37, which is low, but a 21-10 Jets win keeps it under.
Another tough week.
For us its down to the Cowboys or the Eagles. Our heart says Philly, but our heads say take the home favourite.
Feet of Clay: Holding his nose and closing his eyes, and with a heavy heart, he picks the Lions over his beloved Bears.
David Markus: Chargers.
Miguel De La Over: Dallas.
By the way, the very best sports today is Baseball. Can the METS hang on? Will Philly take it on the final day? Will there be a one game playoff tomorrow? The Marlins are right in the middle of this, as they play the Mets at Shea Stadium. Meanwhile the CUBS are division winners this year with Sweet Lou as their first year Manager. We are looking forward to a great October classic.
See You Tomorrow, The First Monday in October, with our bumbershoot.